Optimal Hedging Strategies for the U.S. Cattle Feeder
Abstract: Multiproduct optimal hedging for simulated cattle feeding is compared to alternative hedging strategies using weekly price data for 1983-95. Out-of-sample means and variances of hedged feeding margins using estimated hedge ratios for four commodities suggest that there is no consistent domination pattern among the alternative strategies, leaving the hedging decision up to the agent's degree of risk aversion. However, all hedging strategies significantly reduce the feeding margin's means and variances compared to no hedging, with variance reduction always exceeding 50 %. Hedging results appear quite sensitive to the data set and its size.
Key Words: cattle feeding, hedge ratios, hedging strategies, multiproduct hedging, optimal hedging
Abstract: This study generates an econometric model of the allocation of political contributions by food firms. It combines information about food firms' total expenditures for political influence with the behavioral assumption of profit maximization to test the hypothesis that food manufacturing firms do not lobby against farm policies. The results support the hypothesis. The inferences are conditional on the effects observed in the sample. The conclusions from this analysis may not be widely generalizable, but they do inform hypotheses about the intentions of food firms that participate in the political market.
Key Words: agribusiness, agricultural commodity programs, farm policy, food manufacturers, lobbying, political contributions
Abstract: Thoroughbred racehorses are commonly characterized as unprofitable investments. Previous studies, grouping all racehorses together, estimate that over 80% of all racehorses in training fail to earn enough to recover the variable costs of training. However, these studies are not truly representative, because they fail to account for a number of factors affecting profitability. This study estimates expected purse earnings and profitability of claiming horses in Kentucky. Maximum- I ikel i hood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a mean of $25,267. Profitability is best described by a Gamma distribution with a mean of $4,824. Of the 305 claims analyzed for profitability, 61% were profitable. The results indicate substantial financial risk associated with claiming race horses, but conclude that there are positive economic returns on average.
Key Words: claiming horses, financial risk, maximum likelihood, probability, profitability, thoroughbred
Abstract: In recent years, the U.S. beef industry has lost a significant portion of its historically dominant market share, due both to changes in consumer preferences and to an increase in the price of beef rel a five to pork and poultry. Changes within the beef industry to improve its competitive position have been slow and relatively unsuccessful. Challenges faced by the industry include a fragmented marketing channel and mistrust among its many participants, lack of specificity in product quality evaluation, and a lengthy and complex production cycle. Future success in maintaining or gaining market share will depend upon the availability of timely information, including forecasts of consumer demand, and the development of incentives to encourage effective behavior by all channel entities to meet this demand. Branded products have been utilized in other sectors of the agricultural industry and have increased consumer demand while also providing production and marketing incentives to align the behavior of channel participants. Industry coordination supporting branded fresh beef products is also a viable option for the beef industry.
Key Words: beef branding, coordination, industry structure, marketing channel, vertical integration
Abstract: The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of vegetable production to enhance the declining farm income of limited resource farmers. A survey of 60 limited resource farmers in south central Alabama was undertaken to carry out this evaluation. Results of the survey show that 95% of the farmers had an annual farm income of less than $12,000. Linear programming methodology was applied to perform a whole-farm analysis of a representative farm developed from the data. The overall results show that vegetable production will significantly increase the annual income of these farmers. Some specific conclusions are that: (a) the total return from vegetable production depends on vegetable mixes; (b) vegetable production is labor intensive and sensitive to change in labor cost, implying that an increase in minimum wage might affect the return from vegetable production; and (c) development of labor-saving technology in vegetable production could be considered as a long-term solution to increase the returns of vegetable producers.
Key Words: enterprise budget, farm analysis, farm income, limited resource farmers, linear programming, minimum wage, vegetable production